Water AlliesTier 2
at 1/5 Fayble Online Regional
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-0-2
overall winrate
85.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
59.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1730
· median 1730
· range 1730–1730
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1226
Q3 1479
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
