Water Penguin MillTier 1
at 1/5 Fayble Online Regional
decks
5
(7.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
14-11-5
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1460
· median 1472
· range 1262–1694
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1226
Q3 1479
1730
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.2% | 6 | 0-4-2 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 38.4% | -6.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
