Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at 1/5 Fayble Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.6% | -2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 54.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 48.1% | -1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 58.6% | +5.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |