Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at 1/5 Fayble Online Regional
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-2-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.2%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1153–1153
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1226
Q3 1479
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.4% | +1.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.6% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.9% | +6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
