Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at 1/5 Fayble Online Regional
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-1-1
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.8%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1441–1441
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1226
Q3 1479
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
