EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mortal Ambition Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Luxem Assassin

54.3%

2.6% share · 5 matches

5.1% share · 10 matches

2.6% share · 7 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Penguin Mill	2	5.1%	10	75.0%	70.4%	56.2%	57.4%	1362	↑ top
2	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.6%	5	60.0%	51.6%	54.3%	52.4%	1335	↑ top
3	Water Luxem Assassin	1	2.6%	7	71.4%	56.2%	53.5%	50.6%	1382	↑ top
4	Wind Allies	6	15.4%	30	66.7%	61.9%	52.9%	52.0%	1210	—
5	Wind Shadowstrike	2	5.1%	10	65.0%	54.1%	52.8%	50.0%	1243	—
6	Wind Astra Cleric	2	5.1%	11	54.5%	54.1%	52.3%	52.2%	1325	↑ top
7	Slimes	6	15.4%	22	50.0%	49.5%	51.9%	51.9%	1207	—
8	Wind Umbra Tristan	1	2.6%	6	66.7%	65.0%	51.8%	54.0%	1194	—
9	Wind Exia	1	2.6%	2	50.0%	50.1%	50.0%	50.1%	1103	↓ low
10	Water Ravishing Mill	1	2.6%	6	66.7%	54.6%	48.7%	47.4%	1335	↑ top
11	Fire Aggro	1	2.6%	3	33.3%	43.4%	48.6%	48.7%	1128	↓ low
12	Fire Exia	3	7.7%	11	36.4%	39.8%	47.9%	47.8%	1243	—
13	Water Tera Mage	1	2.6%	5	40.0%	46.5%	47.7%	48.8%	1163	↓ low
14	Water Umbra Ranger	1	2.6%	5	50.0%	47.5%	46.7%	46.2%	1208	—
15	Fire Neos Tonoris	1	2.6%	5	40.0%	50.7%	46.5%	50.0%	1093	↓ low
16	Water Allies	2	5.1%	9	38.9%	41.7%	45.7%	45.7%	1207	—
17	Fire Umbra Ranger	3	7.7%	11	36.4%	43.1%	43.3%	44.7%	1233	—
18	Fire Tera Silvie	1	2.6%	6	33.3%	40.6%	42.9%	43.3%	1125	↓ low
19	Wind Overlord	1	2.6%	5	40.0%	47.8%	42.7%	44.4%	1111	↓ low
20	Fire Arcane	1	2.6%	6	16.7%	37.0%	41.7%	45.3%	1222	—
21	Fire Slimes	1	2.6%	2	0.0%	34.0%	40.0%	40.4%	1200	—
22	Wind Razorgale	1	2.6%	2	0.0%	34.0%	40.0%	40.7%	1169	↓ low
23	Fire Silvie	1	2.6%	5	0.0%	30.0%	36.0%	40.1%	1074	↓ low