← Magitek Games NorCal Regionals
Fire ArcaneTier 1
at Magitek Games NorCal Regionals
decks
5
(8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
14-11-3
overall winrate
55.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400
· median 1427
· range 1158–1736
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1188
Q3 1413
1736
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 29.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.0% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 60.6% | +6.8 |
| Water Allies | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Water Vanitas | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% | +8.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
