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Water AlliesTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 29.8% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 47.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |