← Magitek Games NorCal Regionals
Wind AlliesTier 1
at Magitek Games NorCal Regionals
decks
17
(29.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
70
35-30-5
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1200
· range 1085–1593
(17 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1188
Q3 1413
1736
24% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
41% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Arcane | 8.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.0% | -1.7 |
| Water Allies | 7.0% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 52.1% | +1.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -6.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 67.8% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -0.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -5.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Vanitas | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -6.5 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Wind Diana | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.5% | +8.2 |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
Decklists · 17 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 11 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Aesan Protector, Nullifying Lantern. Losers more often ran: Scavenging Raccoon, Poisoned Coating Oil, Attune with the Winds.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Imperial Recruit
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Bulwark Sword
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Poisoned Coating Oil
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Attune with the Winds
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Song of Nurturing
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Show all 81 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 61 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.36 | 5 | 1 | 5 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.36 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.36 | 3 | 7 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.27 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.27 | 3 | 6 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.27 | 3 | 0 | 8 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Zephyr | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.27 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |
| Reclaim | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.18 | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bushwhack Bandit | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wildgrowth Elixir | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poised Strike | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 4 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Alliance Gearshield | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.09 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Wind | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deployment Beacon | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magus Disciple | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Cutter | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seer's Sword | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Galahad, Court Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |