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Wind Dawn of AshesTier 3
at Magitek Games NorCal Regionals
decks
1
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.5%
avg ELO -8.3 per match
expected value
43.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1484
· median 1484
· range 1484–1484
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1188
Q3 1413
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 29.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
