Fire AggroTier 2
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +5.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -3.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.2% | -8.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.0% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 38.3% | -6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |