Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
decks
5
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
6-11-4
overall winrate
38.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.3%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1333
· median 1305
· range 1141–1512
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1186
Q3 1422
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.3% | -8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.4% | -5.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
