Fire Crux MageTier 2
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 9 | 3-4-2 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 45.9% | -1.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 55.2% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.4% | -15.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.3% | -14.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Solar Pinnacle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |