Fire PolkhawkTier 2
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-2-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1159
· median 1159
· range 1159–1159
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1186
Q3 1422
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +5.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Polkhawk decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
