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SlimesTier 1

at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS

decks
13 (13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57 27-23-7
overall winrate
53.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0% avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
48.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264 · median 1229 · range 1088–1630 (13 pilots with an ELO rating)
989 Q1 1186 Q3 1422 1685
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 46% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Astra Cleric 13.0% 7 3-4-0 42.9% 45.5% 59.1% +4.6
Fire Aggro 12.0% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 39.1% -5.2
Wind Allies 10.0% 7 4-3-0 57.1% 54.5% 56.2% +3.1
Fire Crux Mage 8.0% 9 4-3-2 55.6% 53.8% 54.1% +1.9
Water Ravishing Mill 8.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 47.7% -1.7
Water Penguin Mill 7.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.0% -7.7
Wind Shadowstrike 5.0% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.5% +2.6
Water Allies 4.0% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 64.9% +8.6
Fire Slimes 3.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 56.3% +6.1
Wind Razorgale 3.0% 0
Fire Exia 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.1% +6.5
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.8% +20.4
Fire Polkhawk 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.1
Fire Ravishing Mill 1.0% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.0% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 46.7% -3.2
Water Crux Mage 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.4% +13.4
Water Slimes 1.0% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.8
Wind Crux Mage 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Merlin 1.0% 0
Wind Lorraine 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.3
Wind Neos 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.7
Wind Slimes 1.0% 0
Wind Tera Silvie 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.4% -10.6
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Unbroken Mustang, Mystic Purifier, Scavenging Raccoon. Losers more often ran: Gaia's Songbird.

Played more by winners
Unbroken Mustang
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Scavenging Raccoon
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Gaia's Songbird
Losing decks ran 2.3 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Unbroken Mustang +1.00 3 0 0
Heavenly Guide +0.67 2 0 0
Ethereal Slime +0.33 1 0 2
Resolute Stand +0.33 1 0 0
Key Slime Pudding -0.33 0 1 0
Vampiric Slime -0.33 0 1 0
Blissful Calling +0.33 1 0 2
Mystic Purifier +0.33 2 1 0
Kraal, Stonescale Tyrant -0.33 0 1 0
Slime King +0.33 1 0 0
Slimeshield +0.33 1 0 2
Beastbond Boots +0.33 1 0 2
Gather Slimes +0.33 1 0 2
Slime's Blessing -0.33 0 1 0
Lustrous Slime -0.33 0 1 2
Hymn of Gaia's Grace -0.33 0 1 0
Spellshield: Tera -0.33 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +0.33 2 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.33 1 0 0
Gaia's Songbird -0.33 1 2 0
Turbo Charge +0.33 1 0 1
Verdant Scepter -0.33 0 1 2
Twilight Slime -0.33 0 1 0
Invective Instruction -0.33 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.33 1 0 1
Kind Beastcaller -0.33 0 1 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.33 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.33 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.00 1 1 1
Slime Eruption +0.00 1 1 1
Tariff Ring +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/17571/archetypes/Slimes