EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Scrubbed out of Steel.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 8.6% | 14 | 71.4% | 49.6% | 56.1% | 49.9% | 1482 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 2 | 5.7% | 10 | 65.0% | 53.1% | 54.9% | 51.3% | 1323 | — |
| 3 | Slimes | 3 | 8.6% | 16 | 59.4% | 50.9% | 53.5% | 50.5% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 2.9% | 7 | 57.1% | 52.6% | 53.1% | 51.2% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Penguin Mill | 6 | 17.1% | 24 | 56.2% | 49.8% | 52.3% | 49.9% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 11.4% | 22 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 51.4% | 50.5% | 1333 | — |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 4 | 11.4% | 21 | 52.4% | 52.7% | 48.5% | 50.7% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 8.6% | 18 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 48.2% | 49.1% | 1338 | — |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | 49.7% | 1307 | — |
| 10 | Water Allies | 3 | 8.6% | 16 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 47.5% | 50.1% | 1288 | — |
| 11 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 45.3% | 49.1% | 1364 | — |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 47.6% | 44.9% | 49.6% | 1030 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.3% | 43.1% | 48.9% | 1388 | — |
| 14 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.9% | 4 | 12.5% | 47.5% | 41.0% | 48.8% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 8.6% | 10 | 20.0% | 46.2% | 39.3% | 48.1% | 1306 | — |