EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Haven Games Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Mage

54.5%

2.7% share · 6 matches

1st

Water Penguin Mill

60.0%

13.5% share · 21 matches

8.1% share · 16 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Penguin Mill	5	13.5%	21	76.2%	57.8%	60.0%	54.0%	1509	↑ top
2	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.7%	6	66.7%	59.0%	54.5%	55.1%	1246	—
3	Water Luxem Assassin	3	8.1%	16	62.5%	54.0%	52.0%	50.7%	1311	—
4	Slimes	4	10.8%	21	57.1%	57.4%	51.6%	53.0%	1318	—
5	Water Silvie	1	2.7%	6	50.0%	51.8%	51.4%	52.4%	1201	↓ low
6	Water Ravishing Mill	2	5.4%	12	58.3%	61.6%	50.5%	53.8%	1217	↓ low
7	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	5.4%	13	57.7%	51.5%	50.2%	49.7%	1261	—
8	Water Crux Mage	2	5.4%	10	50.0%	49.3%	49.1%	49.8%	1350	—
9	Wind Cats	1	2.7%	6	33.3%	47.7%	49.1%	51.6%	1159	↓ low
10	Wind Astra Cleric	2	5.4%	10	50.0%	48.6%	47.7%	48.2%	1197	↓ low
11	Fire Slimes	2	5.4%	11	45.5%	44.6%	47.6%	47.3%	1276	—
12	Fire Arcane	2	5.4%	12	41.7%	40.0%	46.9%	46.3%	1393	↑ top
13	Wind Slimes	1	2.7%	6	50.0%	55.0%	46.7%	48.9%	1214	↓ low
14	Water Allies	2	5.4%	11	40.9%	48.3%	45.0%	47.4%	1170	↓ low
15	Wind Razorgale	4	10.8%	16	37.5%	46.7%	43.4%	46.7%	1248	—
16	Fire Aggro	1	2.7%	4	0.0%	31.0%	40.0%	42.3%	1237	—
17	Wind Crux Mage	1	2.7%	3	0.0%	37.6%	40.0%	44.2%	1051	↓ low
18	Wind Allies	2	5.4%	6	0.0%	29.4%	37.8%	41.4%	1118	↓ low