EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 1/30/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Crux Mage

54.2%

9.5% share · 15 matches

4.8% share · 5 matches

4.8% share · 8 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Razorgale	2	4.8%	5	70.0%	51.2%	57.9%	50.9%	1454	↑ top
2	Water Crux Mage	4	9.5%	15	63.3%	49.7%	54.2%	49.9%	1496	↑ top
3	Fire Aggro	2	4.8%	8	62.5%	50.6%	54.0%	50.4%	1276	—
4	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	4.8%	8	68.8%	51.3%	54.0%	50.5%	1384	—
5	Water Ravishing Mill	4	9.5%	14	60.7%	50.6%	51.7%	50.3%	1418	↑ top
6	Water Luxem Assassin	1	2.4%	2	50.0%	50.6%	51.4%	50.4%	1652	↑ top
7	Water Silvie	1	2.4%	4	75.0%	51.6%	51.1%	50.3%	1316	—
8	Wind Shadowstrike	4	9.5%	14	50.0%	49.8%	50.3%	50.0%	1367	—
9	Wind Exia	1	2.4%	4	37.5%	49.4%	48.8%	49.9%	1164	↓ low
10	Fire Slimes	2	4.8%	6	58.3%	50.7%	48.8%	50.1%	1384	—
11	Slimes	3	7.1%	11	45.5%	49.4%	48.3%	49.8%	1172	↓ low
12	Fire Ravishing Mill	1	2.4%	4	50.0%	51.3%	47.7%	50.4%	1178	↓ low
13	Water Astra Cleric	2	4.8%	7	28.6%	49.6%	47.0%	50.1%	1183	↓ low
14	Fire Neos	1	2.4%	4	37.5%	50.1%	46.7%	50.0%	1158	↓ low
15	Wind Allies	2	4.8%	5	30.0%	48.9%	46.4%	49.7%	1295	—
16	Water Penguin Mill	4	9.5%	11	40.9%	48.9%	46.3%	49.7%	1322	—
17	Water Allies	4	9.5%	9	22.2%	48.6%	44.8%	49.6%	1328	—
18	Water Tera Mage	1	2.4%	2	25.0%	49.7%	43.3%	49.7%	1144	↓ low
19	Shadowstrike	1	2.4%	1	0.0%	48.9%	40.0%	48.9%	1206	↓ low