EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Arcane

56.0%

1.8% share · 6 matches

7.1% share · 27 matches

5.4% share · 16 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Razorgale	4	7.1%	27	63.0%	51.2%	56.6%	50.6%	1410	↑ top
2	Fire Arcane	1	1.8%	6	66.7%	50.3%	56.0%	50.4%	1471	↑ top
3	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	5.4%	16	68.8%	51.4%	55.0%	50.4%	1379	—
4	Water Ravishing Mill	3	5.4%	19	57.9%	49.0%	54.3%	49.7%	1473	↑ top
5	Wind Slimes	1	1.8%	6	50.0%	49.2%	53.6%	49.9%	1311	—
6	Water Luxem Assassin	2	3.6%	14	60.7%	50.3%	53.3%	50.1%	1365	—
7	Fire Crux Mage	9	16.1%	33	50.0%	50.1%	52.0%	50.2%	1406	↑ top
8	Water Crux Mage	1	1.8%	6	50.0%	50.0%	51.2%	50.1%	1223	↓ low
9	Water Allies	3	5.4%	14	53.6%	49.4%	51.0%	49.7%	1418	↑ top
10	Wind Allies	3	5.4%	16	59.4%	50.5%	49.3%	49.9%	1349	—
11	Fire Kongming	1	1.8%	6	58.3%	50.3%	49.0%	49.9%	1211	↓ low
12	Wind Shadowstrike	2	3.6%	12	50.0%	49.6%	48.9%	49.8%	1282	↓ low
13	Wind Exia	2	3.6%	11	36.4%	49.8%	48.2%	50.0%	1221	↓ low
14	Fire Aggro	4	7.1%	19	50.0%	50.1%	47.9%	49.8%	1362	—
15	Wind Neos	1	1.8%	6	41.7%	49.6%	47.8%	49.9%	1525	↑ top
16	Wind Astra Cleric	6	10.7%	31	46.8%	50.3%	47.2%	50.0%	1348	—
17	Water Kongming	1	1.8%	6	33.3%	49.2%	45.3%	49.7%	1223	↓ low
18	Fire Exia	3	5.4%	13	23.1%	48.6%	45.0%	49.7%	1254	↓ low
19	Water Penguin Mill	5	8.9%	27	37.0%	49.8%	44.0%	49.8%	1227	↓ low
20	Water Crux Lorraine	1	1.8%	5	30.0%	49.8%	42.9%	49.8%	1067	↓ low
21	Water Neos	1	1.8%	5	30.0%	49.0%	42.9%	49.4%	1299	—