← Card Merchant Westcity Regionals
Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Regionals
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-6-1
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1125
· median 1125
· range 1077–1172
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1242
Q3 1406
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 22.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.0% | +7.5 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
