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Water FractalTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Regionals
decks
9
(22.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41
20-14-7
overall winrate
57.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1399
· median 1430
· range 1159–1575
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1242
Q3 1406
1599
56% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 68.4% | +9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 34.4% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 44.4% | -3.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 64.4% | +8.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.0% | +7.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.0% | -7.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Refreshment, Fractal of Snow, Extricating Touch. Losers more often ran: Disenchant, Chill to the Bone, Fractal of Intrusion.
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Snow
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Extricating Touch
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Disenchant
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Chill to the Bone
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Intrusion
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Unstable Fractal
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Coronal of Rejuvenation | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Eventide Lure | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Seal | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Awakening | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloom: Winter's Chill | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Blossoming Denial | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Bloom: Summer's Glow | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Season's End | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kaleidoscope Barrette | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |