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Water AlliesTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 22.5% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 31.6% | -9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Eventide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dian Wei, Valorant Fury | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |