← Yeti Gaming Online Regional Championship 2

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2

at Yeti Gaming Online Regional Championship 2

decks
10 (8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
45 18-21-6
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6% avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
52.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1367 · median 1354 · range 1150–1582 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1219 Q3 1426 1656
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 14.0% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 62.1% +7.7
Wind Allies 14.0% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 57.3% +4.2
Fire Aggro 13.2% 12 4-7-1 37.5% 40.6% 44.4% -2.4
Fire Crux Mage 7.9% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 42.1% -5.1
Fire Erupting 7.0% 8 1-5-2 25.0% 33.3% 41.6% -4.0
Fire Umbra Ranger 7.0% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 46.0% -2.3
Fire Arcane 5.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.9% +3.1
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 53.8% +3.6
Water Astra Cleric 2.6% 0
Water Tera Silvie 2.6% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 2.6% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.8% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.8% 0
Water Neos 1.8% 0
Wind Arcane 1.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.8% -6.7
Wind Crux Mage 1.8% 0
Fire Crux Hybrid 0.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -1.2
Fire Crux Merlin 0.9% 0
Fire Neos Tonoris 0.9% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.9% 0
Wind Crux Hybrid 0.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.6% +2.6
Wind Dawn of Ashes 0.9% 0
Wind Neos 0.9% 0
Wind Neos Tonoris 0.9% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.9% 0
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Losers more often ran: Focused Flames, Planted Explosive, Resolute Stand.

Played more by winners

No cards correlated with winning.

Played more by losers
Focused Flames
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Planted Explosive
Losing decks ran 3.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 0.
Vanish from Sight
Losing decks ran 2.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 0.
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief
Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Orb of Regret
Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Focused Flames -0.60 0 3 0
Song of Frost +0.40 2 0 1
Caliburn of Silencing -0.40 0 2 0
Planted Explosive -0.40 1 3 1
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.40 2 0 3
Resolute Stand -0.20 2 3 0
Water Resonance Bauble +0.20 1 0 4
Vanish from Sight -0.20 2 3 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief -0.20 1 2 2
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.20 1 0 1
Orb of Glitter +0.20 1 0 0
Orb of Regret -0.20 1 2 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.20 0 1 0
Tithe Proclamation -0.20 0 1 0
Uncover the Plot +0.00 1 1 3
Spirit of Serene Water +0.00 1 1 2
Serum of Wisdom +0.00 1 1 3
Fracturize +0.00 1 1 2
Oasis Trading Post +0.00 1 1 2
Chalice of Blood +0.00 1 1 3
Spirit of Serene Fire +0.00 1 1 3
Spirit of Fire +0.00 1 1 0
Spurn to Ash +0.00 1 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 1 1 1
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.00 1 1 0
Poisoned Dagger +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/2179/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin