← Yeti Gaming Online Regional Championship 2
Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional Championship 2
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 38.9% | -5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.2% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.4% | +0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.0% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.5% | -1.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Take Cover | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unearth Revelations | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Force Load | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |