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Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional Championship 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 14.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.2% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 58.9% | +5.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seafaring Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rally the Peasants | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |