← Yeti Gaming Online Regional Championship 2
Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional Championship 2
decks
16
(14.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
87
41-36-10
overall winrate
52.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321
· median 1320
· range 1136–1567
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1219
Q3 1426
1656
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.0% | 18 | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 36.4% | 44.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.2% | 12 | 9-3-0 | 75.0% | 68.8% | 56.2% | +2.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 37.9% | -7.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 46.8% | -1.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 7.0% | 11 | 6-3-2 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 42.0% | -4.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 58.6% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Stillwater Patrol, Seasprite Diver, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa. Losers more often ran: Fast Cure, Lunete, Frostbinder Priest, Tithe Proclamation.
Stillwater Patrol
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Seasprite Diver
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Corhazi Trapper
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Seeking Shot
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Freezing Hail
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Lunete, Frostbinder Priest
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Hypothermia
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 88 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 76 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Amorphous Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sentinel Fabricator | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smash with Obelisk | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Wraith | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| False Step | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reposition | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alliance Gearshield | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Take Point | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mist Resonance | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Capricious Lynx | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |