Fire ArcaneTier 2
at HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
39.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1118
· median 1118
· range 1095–1141
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1158
Q3 1325
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 17.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Allies | 10.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
