Fire SuzakuTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.6%
avg ELO +7.5 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1369
· median 1369
· range 1284–1455
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1158
Q3 1325
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 17.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.9% | +25.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
