Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 17.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.7% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 55.8% | +3.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +12.9 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |