← Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-2-3
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.9%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293
· median 1293
· range 1271–1315
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
956
Q1 1212
Q3 1418
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
