← Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
decks
3
(4.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
12-9-1
overall winrate
56.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1285
· range 1247–1418
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
956
Q1 1212
Q3 1418
1571
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 41.8% | -4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Razorgale | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
