← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Fire AggroTier 1
at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.5 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 53.5% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 33.9% | -9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.5% | -10.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.3% | +6.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 40.4% | -4.8 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.7 |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.3 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper, Clumsy Apprentice. Losers more often ran: Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Woodland Squirrels, Poisoned Dagger.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hasty Messenger | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Framework Sidearm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |