← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
decks
1
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1429
· median 1429
· range 1429–1429
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1151
Q3 1386
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
