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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 62.8% | +6.1 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 54.8% | +2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 66.1% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.0% | +16.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | -9.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.8% | -8.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.9% | +8.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |