← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Water TonorisTier 2
at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
decks
1
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-4-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1132
· median 1132
· range 1132–1132
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1151
Q3 1386
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tonoris decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
