← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Fire Cinderbloom ComboTier 2
at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.3% | -3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -8.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Explosive Concoction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hulao Gate, Sun's Ascent | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hide in Bush | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alchemist's Kit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Absolving Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |