← Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Whimsy Regionals - Abyssal Heaven
decks
5
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
17-12-4
overall winrate
57.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.8%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1240
· median 1174
· range 1171–1472
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1151
Q3 1386
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.2 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.5% | +10.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Slimes | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Wind Beast | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
