← Curio Grand Archive HVN Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Curio Grand Archive HVN Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 5 | 8.8% | 26 | 75.0% | 65.7% | 61.0% | 57.6% | 1338 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Luxem Zander | 4 | 7.0% | 28 | 64.3% | 46.7% | 57.8% | 50.0% | 1422 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.8% | 7 | 78.6% | 70.5% | 55.4% | 56.1% | 1242 | — |
| 4 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 1.8% | 7 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 51.0% | 50.6% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.2% | 50.9% | 53.4% | 1279 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 1.8% | 7 | 57.1% | 58.7% | 50.7% | 52.4% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 6 | 10.5% | 32 | 53.1% | 57.8% | 50.6% | 53.0% | 1247 | — |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 3.5% | 16 | 65.6% | 62.7% | 50.4% | 51.0% | 1278 | — |
| 9 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 1.8% | 9 | 72.2% | 58.6% | 50.3% | 50.4% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Genbu | 7 | 12.3% | 39 | 56.4% | 53.0% | 50.2% | 49.6% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1262 | — |
| 12 | Wind Beast | 1 | 1.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.2% | 49.2% | 52.1% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Cats | 1 | 1.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.2% | 49.2% | 52.1% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Tera Tamer | 1 | 1.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.2% | 49.2% | 52.1% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Fractal | 7 | 12.3% | 37 | 50.0% | 47.8% | 49.2% | 48.4% | 1289 | — |
| 16 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.8% | 7 | 42.9% | 39.6% | 47.5% | 44.9% | 1292 | — |
| 17 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 50.0% | 55.7% | 47.1% | 50.2% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 7.0% | 22 | 43.2% | 49.8% | 46.4% | 50.2% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 10.5% | 37 | 39.2% | 44.3% | 45.6% | 47.7% | 1222 | — |
| 20 | Fire Arcane | 3 | 5.3% | 17 | 32.4% | 34.7% | 44.3% | 44.5% | 1248 | — |
| 21 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.8% | 7 | 35.7% | 48.5% | 42.0% | 46.6% | 1006 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.8% | 5 | 0.0% | 24.8% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.8% | 7 | 14.3% | 32.7% | 38.7% | 41.6% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Wind Exia | 1 | 1.8% | 5 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 38.0% | 41.4% | 1064 | ↓ low |