EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Nut Abyssal Heaven Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Seiryuu

58.9%

6.5% share · 9 matches

3.2% share · 5 matches

3.2% share · 5 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Kongming	1	3.2%	5	80.0%	64.1%	61.9%	57.4%	1327	↑ top
2	Wind Seiryuu	2	6.5%	9	88.9%	70.3%	58.9%	58.4%	1369	↑ top
3	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	3.2%	5	70.0%	62.6%	58.1%	57.9%	1159	↓ low
4	Water Allies	1	3.2%	5	60.0%	52.1%	55.0%	53.2%	1268	—
5	Fire Arcane	1	3.2%	6	66.7%	57.8%	54.7%	53.3%	1239	—
6	Wind Neos	1	3.2%	5	70.0%	56.1%	52.5%	51.6%	1525	↑ top
7	Fire Suzaku	2	6.5%	7	57.1%	56.2%	51.3%	51.9%	1220	—
8	Water Genbu	2	6.5%	10	50.0%	44.7%	50.7%	48.1%	1291	—
9	Water Fractal	8	25.8%	29	46.6%	49.0%	50.1%	50.0%	1237	—
10	Wind Allies	4	12.9%	20	52.5%	50.2%	48.8%	50.2%	1306	↑ top
11	Wind Shadowstrike	2	6.5%	10	30.0%	39.3%	46.9%	47.7%	1217	—
12	Water Ravishing Mill	2	6.5%	10	35.0%	39.8%	46.9%	46.0%	1215	—
13	Wind Astra Cleric	2	6.5%	8	43.8%	50.1%	45.7%	46.1%	1173	↓ low
14	Water Dawn of Ashes	1	3.2%	5	40.0%	45.5%	44.3%	44.2%	1294	—
15	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	3.2%	5	40.0%	52.9%	44.0%	48.3%	1198	↓ low
16	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	3.2%	6	0.0%	23.5%	40.0%	41.2%	1145	↓ low
17	Wind Exia	1	3.2%	1	0.0%	39.1%	40.0%	39.1%	1145	↓ low