Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/4/2024
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1527
· median 1527
· range 1471–1582
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1200
Q3 1415
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Allies | 11.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
