Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/4/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Neos | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |