Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/4/2024
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Water Allies | 11.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Neos | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Neos | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tonoris | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Weaponsmith | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Majestic Spirit's Crest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |