← Grand Library League S3 Finals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Library League S3 Finals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Polkhawk | 1 | 1.1% | 9 | 72.2% | 50.5% | 56.9% | 50.5% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.1% | 11 | 72.7% | 52.4% | 56.4% | 50.8% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 1.1% | 9 | 61.1% | 52.7% | 53.9% | 51.2% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 4 | 4.4% | 28 | 58.9% | 51.2% | 53.8% | 50.6% | 1339 | — |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.1% | 9 | 61.1% | 49.6% | 53.3% | 49.9% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 4.4% | 29 | 53.4% | 50.9% | 53.2% | 50.8% | 1286 | — |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 4.4% | 27 | 55.6% | 50.3% | 52.6% | 50.3% | 1317 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.2% | 18 | 61.1% | 50.1% | 52.0% | 50.2% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 11 | 12.2% | 80 | 52.5% | 49.9% | 51.8% | 50.1% | 1353 | — |
| 10 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 2.2% | 14 | 57.1% | 51.0% | 51.7% | 50.1% | 1345 | — |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 11 | 12.2% | 77 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 51.5% | 50.4% | 1321 | — |
| 12 | Water Genbu | 8 | 8.9% | 55 | 52.7% | 50.3% | 51.4% | 50.1% | 1314 | — |
| 13 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.1% | 9 | 61.1% | 49.7% | 51.2% | 49.5% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 5 | 5.6% | 42 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 49.0% | 49.6% | 1383 | — |
| 15 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 50.7% | 48.8% | 50.2% | 1369 | — |
| 16 | Wind Astra Cleric | 7 | 7.8% | 45 | 46.7% | 49.4% | 48.6% | 49.6% | 1309 | — |
| 17 | Fire Slimes | 4 | 4.4% | 26 | 38.5% | 47.0% | 48.5% | 49.0% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 50.1% | 1068 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Allies | 7 | 7.8% | 49 | 49.0% | 49.5% | 48.1% | 49.8% | 1316 | — |
| 20 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 47.8% | 50.4% | 996 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Byakko | 2 | 2.2% | 15 | 43.3% | 49.9% | 46.6% | 49.7% | 1246 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 35.7% | 51.2% | 46.2% | 50.2% | 1368 | — |
| 23 | Wind Neos | 3 | 3.3% | 18 | 33.3% | 48.2% | 45.9% | 49.7% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 2.2% | 12 | 41.7% | 50.8% | 45.7% | 50.2% | 1385 | — |
| 25 | Water Fractal | 8 | 8.9% | 45 | 38.9% | 49.7% | 44.7% | 49.6% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.9% | 44.0% | 49.3% | 1182 | ↓ low |