Water FractalTier 1
at DeckaDice HVN QLD Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 36.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Cats | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |