EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Suzaku

54.1%

2.2% share · 6 matches

11.1% share · 26 matches

2.2% share · 5 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aggro	5	11.1%	26	65.4%	54.0%	56.1%	51.9%	1458	↑ top
2	Fire Suzaku	1	2.2%	6	66.7%	55.5%	54.1%	52.3%	1444	↑ top
3	Wind Seiryuu	1	2.2%	5	50.0%	45.5%	53.2%	49.6%	1520	↑ top
4	Wind Allies	1	2.2%	6	50.0%	51.2%	52.5%	51.1%	1366	—
5	Wind Arcane	1	2.2%	6	41.7%	43.4%	52.5%	49.4%	1632	↑ top
6	Water Fractal	8	17.8%	42	54.8%	54.8%	52.3%	52.3%	1373	—
7	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	2.2%	6	50.0%	49.5%	51.4%	50.6%	1463	↑ top
8	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	4.4%	9	50.0%	45.4%	49.8%	47.8%	1439	↑ top
9	Wind Luxem Zander	3	6.7%	18	47.2%	42.9%	49.7%	47.6%	1461	↑ top
10	Water Genbu	2	4.4%	8	50.0%	52.5%	47.9%	50.2%	1291	↓ low
11	Fire Luxem Assassin	5	11.1%	28	42.9%	47.5%	47.8%	49.2%	1336	—
12	Wind Shadowstrike	4	8.9%	21	45.2%	48.1%	46.2%	47.9%	1316	↓ low
13	Water Ravishing Mill	3	6.7%	13	38.5%	47.7%	45.1%	48.7%	1235	↓ low
14	Wind Astra Cleric	3	6.7%	13	38.5%	45.7%	44.1%	46.3%	1470	↑ top
15	Fire Crux Mage	2	4.4%	11	36.4%	50.7%	43.6%	49.1%	1301	↓ low
16	Fire Slimes	1	2.2%	4	37.5%	54.6%	43.5%	50.8%	1094	↓ low
17	Water Crux Mage	1	2.2%	6	16.7%	41.4%	39.4%	45.1%	1313	↓ low