← EU Nationals 2025

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at EU Nationals 2025

decks
5 (7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36 16-10-10
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
56.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1380 · median 1418 · range 1225–1493 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094 Q1 1253 Q3 1436 1584
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 20.6% 9 5-1-3 72.2% 65.4% 62.1% +5.6
Wind Shadowstrike 14.3% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 55.9% +3.4
Water Genbu 12.7% 6 1-1-4 50.0% 50.0% 43.9% -3.2
Wind Allies 11.1% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 62.3% +9.2
Fire Aggro 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.1% -20.7
Wind Astra Cleric 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.6% +15.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.2% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 37.0% -9.7
Wind Luxem Zander 3.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.1% +16.2
Wind Seiryuu 3.2% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 38.1% -11.4
Fire Exia 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.6
Fire Seiryuu 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.9% +9.4
Fire Slimes 1.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.6% +4.1
Fire Suzaku 1.6% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.6% 0
Water Neos 1.6% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 1.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 21.8% -27.1
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.6% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 1.6% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Scry the Skies -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate -1.00 0 1 0
Thieving Cut +1.00 1 0 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Art of War +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/24230/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin