Water Ravishing MillTier 3
at EU Nationals 2025
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-5-3
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.4%
avg ELO +7.9 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1264–1264
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1253
Q3 1436
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.7% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 61.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 78.2% | +27.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.8% | +21.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
