Water FractalTier 2
at EU Nationals 2025
decks
13
(20.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
80
33-34-13
overall winrate
49.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1309
· median 1283
· range 1176–1518
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1253
Q3 1436
1584
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 19 | 11-7-1 | 60.5% | 58.7% | 57.7% | +3.0 |
| Water Genbu | 12.7% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 51.7% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 10 | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 58.6% | +3.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.9% | 9 | 1-5-3 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 37.9% | -5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 24.7% | -18.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.1% | +7.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.3% | -19.8 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Unstable Fractal, Turbo Charge, Wand of Frost. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Staggering Strike, Frostbind.
Unstable Fractal
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Wand of Frost
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.30 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frostbind | -0.20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Rescue the Heir | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Disenchant | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |