EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Düsseldorf Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 3.7% | 12 | 79.2% | 72.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | 1358 | — |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 5 | 9.3% | 29 | 74.1% | 60.5% | 59.8% | 54.4% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.9% | 7 | 78.6% | 55.3% | 54.9% | 50.7% | 1468 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 5.6% | 17 | 52.9% | 52.8% | 54.1% | 53.5% | 1355 | — |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 7 | 13.0% | 35 | 54.3% | 52.6% | 51.1% | 51.1% | 1344 | — |
| 6 | Water Allies | 2 | 3.7% | 12 | 50.0% | 36.9% | 48.9% | 42.3% | 1444 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 45.1% | 48.6% | 48.4% | 1332 | — |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 10 | 18.5% | 46 | 48.9% | 55.4% | 48.2% | 50.8% | 1280 | — |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 48.1% | 48.6% | 1301 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 3.7% | 8 | 43.8% | 46.8% | 48.0% | 47.6% | 1219 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 5 | 9.3% | 23 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 47.8% | 47.3% | 1351 | — |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 5 | 9.3% | 27 | 40.7% | 46.5% | 47.3% | 48.7% | 1298 | — |
| 13 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 40.4% | 46.8% | 43.4% | 1354 | — |
| 14 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.5% | 46.8% | 50.2% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 5.6% | 16 | 37.5% | 43.3% | 46.0% | 46.9% | 1318 | — |
| 16 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 37.5% | 45.3% | 45.5% | 44.8% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Exia | 2 | 3.7% | 9 | 27.8% | 38.7% | 43.5% | 44.4% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Zander | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.8% | 43.2% | 45.6% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Exia | 2 | 3.7% | 9 | 22.2% | 41.6% | 41.6% | 46.5% | 1249 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.9% | 4 | 12.5% | 36.9% | 38.9% | 42.4% | 1188 | ↓ low |