← HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
Fire AggroTier 1
at HVN Regionals Palmerston North Valkyrie Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +7.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.4% | -6.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Clarent, Reimagined, Clarent, Sword of Peace. Losers more often ran: Veteran Blazebearer, Safeguard Amulet, Flame-Rune Swordsman.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |